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Capitol Fax

Rich Miller's commentary on State Government

Pat Quinn is the most popular Illinois governor in more than a decade.

A new statewide poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports found that Gov. Quinn has a 61 percent job approval rating. The poll of 500 likely Illinois voters conducted April 14th claims that Quinn's job approval rating is five points higher than US Sen. Dick Durbin's 56 percent "favorable" rating, and six points lower than President Barack Obama's home state 67 percent job approval rating. The poll's margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points

That's pretty darned good for a guy who has been widely denounced for proposing a "50 percent income tax increase."

Drill into the numbers, though, and Quinn's support is a bit soft, or "shallow," as the case may be.

The vast majority of voter opinion is in the muddled middle, which isn't surprising considering that he's only been governor for less than three months and wasn't elected on his own. Forty-four percent of likely voters "somewhat" approve of his job performance (compared to 16 percent who said the same about Obama) and 23 percent "somewhat" disapprove (9 percent for Obama).

Quinn's "strongly" approve and "strongly" disapprove numbers are both fairly low - 17 and 14 percent, respectively. Few truly love or hate him at this point.

The governor's "somewhat approve" numbers are near or above 40 percent in almost every single demographic, including Republicans. An impressive 41 percent of Republicans "somewhat" approve of Quinn's job performance. Just 21 percent of GOP voters said the same about Obama. Almost half, 47 percent, of Democrats somewhat approve of his performance (13 percent for Obama), while 37 percent of conservatives, 46 percent of whites, 45 percent of blacks 39 percent of married people and 53 percent of unmarried folks all "somewhat" approve of Quinn's performance in office.

That softness might mean things could change in a hurry if voters decide he isn't living up to expectations. His tax hike proposals, especially, could move numbers fast. So far, though, they haven't, despite widespread reporting on the tax hike plan and lots of angry commentary against it. That's incredibly good news for Quinn, at least for now.

Quinn's "somewhat disapprove" numbers follow about the same sort of pattern. Thirty percent of Republicans, 19 percent of Democrats, 21 percent of whites and 24 percent of blacks all "somewhat" disapproved of Quinn's job performance. Always keep in mind, of course, that margins of error in these subgroups will be substantially higher than the entire sample.

These appear to be the highest job approval ratings of any Illinois governor we've had since Jim Edgar left the governor's office in January of 1999 with job approval ratings in the high 60s to mid 70s.

Former Gov. George Ryan's numbers dropped like a rock soon after he was inaugurated because of the quickly expanding federal investigation and his flip-flop on a sales tax hike. Rod Blagojevich topped out at 55 percent in a January, 2004 Tribune survey, although he bragged at the time that his own polling showed he had a 66 percent approval rating.

People are obviously pleased with this new change in leadership, if understandably hesitant to give Quinn a full-throated endorsement.

This will also be welcome news for Illinois Democrats in general, who have been pummeled by scandal after scandal the past few years and are attempting to deal with a gigantic state budget deficit. The result will also likely embolden Quinn and possibly strengthen his hand in dealings with the General Assembly this spring.

But, like I said above, he has to be careful here.

For instance, the governor has spent a whole lot of time pointing fingers at everyone else for their ethical lapses, but has yet to issue any sort of mea culpa for his own role in Blagojevich's rise to power. Quinn was blatantly used by Blagojevich in 2002 and in 2006 to help boost his own reformer bona fides and Quinn seemed always happy to comply.

Quinn repeatedly defended Blagojevich against charges of corruption and happily went along with the program in both the 2002 and 2006 campaigns. When it was evident to just about everyone that Blagojevich was a criminal, Quinn cheered almost every move.

He's been able to get away with it because people (myself included) are so happy to finally be rid of the criminal ogre that we've been willing to cut Quinn extra slack.

That may not last forever.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and thecapitolfaxblog.com.

Changes at Illowa Thrift Store

It is with a heavy heart that I write this letter to you and the reader's of this column. I learned just this morning (April 15) that a viable local business has been "hi-jacked," in my opinion, away from its founder, Diana Van Zuiden. She started the Illowa Thrift Store 12 years ago in an effort to give something back to the community where she and her family reside.

She - I know - has spent countless hours and a lot of her own money to enable folks in Fulton and the surrounding area to benefit from the variety of donated items found in the little store. Diana enlisted many volunteers to keep the doors open 6-days-a-week during the morning hours and more recently, afternoons as well. She filled many of those hours herself when someone couldn't be there or "forgot" that it was their day to work.

Many items went out the door to help hurting people near and far: an Indian Reservation in South Dakota, and a mission operation down in Mississippi, to name a couple of outreach projects. Closer to home, the victims of fires, floods, etc. were helped because of Diana's benevolent spirit.

I have known her for approximately 10 years, since becoming a volunteer on a monthly basis. You folks in Fulton have a real friend and Christian neighbor here, and I think you should express your "thank-yous" to Diana for her past efforts and encourage her during this time. Diana realizes that there is a reason for everything and she is now looking for that rainbow that appears after the rain.

God Bless you, friend, and consider yourself hugged . . .

Linda Millard Eads

10-year volunteer

Mt. Carroll, IL

Consider the Source

Dear Editor:

Last week an article titled "Now CO2 is Declining as well as Temperatures" was published in the Prairie Advocate. I read it with interest as I know there is a scientific consensus regarding the current human induced climate change issue. Some of the statements in the article did not ring true, so I decided to do some checking. Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, lists the Hudson Institute as a neoconservative think tank that is known to take positions critical of environmentalism. The author of the article in the paper last week, Dennis T. Avery, is a senior fellow of the Institute. Avery lists several citations at the end of his article. I looked up the two citations from the journal Science and read them myself. The data are misrepresented in Avery's article. Also, two citations are listed from the journal Energy and Environment. This journal is not listed in the Institute for Scientific Information journal citation reports. This is an indexing service for academic journals. Please consider the source.

Lisa Venner

Mt. Carroll

Response to Considering the Source

The PA does consider the source. The Hudson Institute is a highly regarded think-tank. Because someone is considered by some to be neo-conservative, does that make them liars or their viewpoints invalid? The one line in the Hudson Foundation Wikipedia entry which states, "It was described by US foreign policy scholars John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt as 'closely associated with neo-conservatives.' " does not constitute that it is universally considered neo-conservative or that neo-conservatism is wrong or "bad." Neo-conservative, liberal, moderate or conservative are only relative labels that do not convey anything specific. In my mind, neo-conservative is closely connected to liberalism, which one can discover when looking up neo-conservatism's history and meaning. The Pew Foundation is often quoted as a source and is considered very liberal by many people. Are their viewpoints as suspect in your mind as those of the Hudson Institute?

As far as the "consensus on global warming," there are many highly regarded scientists who disagree.There have been consortium's on the topic with hundreds of scientists who believe mankind has little if any effect on the climate. Roy Spencer, PhD is one. http://www.drroyspencer.com/ I think that his holistic view of our climate is much more believable than the highly publicized one of Al Gore. Just because information is highly disseminated or that someone has enough money to make a movie doesn't mean that it is more accurate than less publicized information. Because opposing points of view are not represented in the corporate press doesn't mean they do not exist. The PA finds this lack of reporting a huge failing of today's national mass media.

If you will read why the article onEnergy and Environmentin Wikipedia is disputed, you will find that theInstitute for Scientific Information is not the only academic listing source. TheScopus system is also highly regarded and does list E and E.

The Prairie Advocate strives to vet our information as best as we can. We did not vet this particular article because the article had citations, which youconscientiouslylooked up. We have vetted the Hudson Institute in the past and have found it a credible source. As always, any topic can have a myriad of views, statistics can and are often twisted and turned to any advantage. What we try to accomplish is to give our readers views that mainstream, corporate news media often neglect because of the entertainment factor needed for ratings as well as significant bias evident in some national news reporting of recent days.

An aside to this, view our video on www.pacc-news.com of a CNN reporter trying to raise the ire of a protester while off-camera. It seems clear to me that the reporter was attempting to manufacture news instead of reporting on it.

Respectfully,

Lynn Kocal

PA Webmaster

Local SBDC in Jeopardy

If state grant money from the Illinois Community College Board doesn't come through, then Highland Community College won't have the money to match Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity funds, and the HCC office of the Small Business Development Center (SBDC) will close June 30.

Sauk Valleyoffice is in jeopardy of closing as well.If you believe as I do, we cannot lose this invaluable resource. The following are contact information for anyone who would like to issue a letter of support for the SBDC offices:

Dr. Joe Kanosky, President

Highland Community College

2998 W. Pearl Street

Freeport, IL 61032

Dr. George Mihel, President

173 IL Route #2

Dixon, IL 61021

Sincerely,

John Huggins

AmeriCorps VISTA Member

& Coordinator for

Blackhawk Hills Entrepreneur and Inventors Club

Hope, Dignity, Love

April 19th through April 25th is National Volunteer Week, a time to recognize and celebrate the thousands of people who share their time and talents in communities across the country. Despite the difficult times our country is facing, it is inspiring to see that men and women, young and old, are still committed to serving others through volunteering.

One very special group of people is hospice volunteers. These volunteers make sure that the people they care for and their families find hope within each day, have their dignity preserved, and are surrounded by love even at the final moments of life. The National Hospice and Palliative Care Organization reports that there are an estimated 400,000 hospice volunteers giving of their time and talent to patients and families who are coping with life-limiting illness and loss. These trained volunteers provide more than 16 million hours of service every year.

Most hospice volunteers choose to give their time helping others because of their own experiences with the compassionate care hospice provided to their dying loved one. Many who are unfamiliar with hospice care assume that this volunteer work would be taking place in a setting of gloom and despair. Hospice volunteers tell a different storyhow the time that they spend with those who need it most can be filled with hope, dignity, and love.

Here in the Sauk Valley area, more than 300 volunteers provide more than 4,500 hours per year in service to Hospice of the Rock River Valley patients and families through direct care, the baking brigade or during special projects or events like the Festival of Trees.

During National Volunteer Week, take time to thank the volunteers in your community, and learn more about volunteering opportunities. You can learn more about hospice by contacting Hospice of the Rock River Valley at 815-288-3673.

Karen Voss

Marketing Director

Hospice of the Rock River Valley

Capitol Report

By Jim Sacia, State Representative, 89th District

Governor Pat Quinn is a good man. He's not someone I always agree with ­ in fact I sometimes strongly disagree with him ­ but that doesn't diminish my respect for his honesty and integrity, and of course his loyalty to our state and country.

On the 27th of March, the day we laid to rest Specialist Norman Cain of Mt. Morris who was killed in action in Afghanistan, it surprised no one that the Governor was in attendance at the service. In my seven years as your State Representative I have attended the services of each of the four soldiers and marines from the 89th district killed in foreign lands: Marine Lance Corporal Neil Petsche of Lena, Army Sergeant Andrew Lancaster of Stockton, Marine Lance Corporal Andrew Patten of Byron and of course Army Specialist Norman Cain of Mt. Morris. Then-Lieutenant Governor, now Governor Quinn spoke at every one.

During the first week in April, I was in attendance at a function at the Governor's Mansion. The Governor joined us from his quarters on the third floor. (Imagine a Governor actually living in the Governor's Mansion; what an interesting concept! Sorry, I couldn't resist that.) Visiting with the Governor and knowing that he has never in the past six years missed the service for a fallen soldier, sailor, marine or airman from Illinois killed in combat, I asked him how many he had attended. He said "I'm not sure, Jim. But it's over 250." That speaks volumes to me.

I, again, find myself in disagreement with the Governor regarding his decision not to fund the full opening of Thomson prison at a cost of $40 million. I joined my friends and colleagues Senator Mike Jacobs (D-Moline), Representative Pat Verschoore (D-Rock Island), a legislative aid to Representative Mike Boland (D-Moline) and more than 150 concerned citizens at Thomson on April 4th. On April 14th, my good friend Senator Dan Rutherford (R-Pontiac) joined me at the prison along with more than 100 local residents advocating the opening of the prison.

If it wasn't such a tragedy it would be laughable. The second-most significant expenditure in our state history for a building has sat nearly vacant since it's completion in 2001.

Why was it so significant that Senator Rutherford was there? Quite simply, there are those who might believe that the Senator is more concerned about keeping Pontiac Prison open in his district than opening Thomson. Not even close. Senator Dan can say it better than most: "the Illinois Department of Corrections is at 130% capacity. Maximum security is at nearly 170% capacity. We spent nearly $70 million last year in overtime for D.O.C. guards. We must unify as a coalition to bring Thomson on-line to alleviate the significant overcrowding in our prison system." Dan stated that it will be one of his most significant priorities between now and budget implementation. I promise the same.

Finally, the Illinois Agriwomen are sponsoring a $1,000 scholarship for the 2009-2010 school year for a college senior attending an Illinois college or university and majoring in agriculture education. The applicant must be preparing to be a Vocational Agriculture Teacher. Go to www.illinoisagriwomen.org to apply. Applications are due by May 30, 2009.

As always, you can reach me, Sally or Barb at 815/232-0774 or e-mail us at jimsacia@aeroinc.net. You can also visit my website at www.jimsacia.com. It's always a pleasure to hear from you.

Commentary

Where's the Runaway Warming?

The global cooling trend that began early in 2007 continues. America's official global reading for March, 2009 has been issued by Goddard Space Institute. The month was the coldest of this young century and colder than March of 1990. The satellite records show an even stronger recent cooling trend.

Equally interesting, Goddard says this year's March was just 0.03 degrees warmer than March of 1981, a year when the El Nino/La Nina index was approximately the same as today's. Does that mean the planet's net warming is only three hundredths of a degree C over the last 30 years? Thanks to Czech physicist Lubos Motl for spotting that relationship.

Meanwhile, the Director of the Goddard Institute, James Hansen, recently sent a letter to President Obama saying that Obama has "only four years left to save the earth" from "runaway warming." He told the London Observer in February that "The trains carrying coal to power plants are death trains. Coal-fired power plants are factories of death." Hansen maintains that recent warming has pushed the planet close to a "tipping point" for runaway warming. What recent warming? Three hundredths of a degree C over 30 years, with temperatures still declining, doesn't seem worth ruining the world's economies.

Goddard's famous computerized climate warming predictions continue to be wrong. In contrast, sunspots predicted the temperature rise from 1976-98, and sunspots began predicting the current cooling in 2000. Earth's temperatures have demonstrably been following changes in the earth's cloudiness, which are linkedevidently thru cosmic raysto the recently-declining level of solar activity.

The sunspots and cosmic rays have a 79 percent correlation with our thermometer record since 1860. Meanwhile the CO2 correlation is a mere 22 percent. I love repeating that comparison! The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change already admitted in 2001 that it's modeled "scenarios" cannot accurately predict cloud impacts on temperatures.

In addition to the sunspots, NASA's Jason satellite has confirmed the Pacific Ocean moving into its cool phase. Such cooling phases last 30 years or so. During our last cooling phase, from 1940-75, global warming should have surged if caused by industrial CO2 emissions. The world's whole industrial revolution really kicked off in 1945. Soon after that, the postwar explosion in auto emissions hit worldwide.

Hansen still claims that global warming is occurring rapidly but has been masked by aerosols in the atmosphere. The "lost heat" was supposedly lurking in the oceans. However, 3000 new Argo floats are giving us the most accurate sea temperatures ever recorded, and they say the oceans stopped warming in 2003. If the oceans aren't warming, neither is the planet.

The ongoing cooling makes it horribly difficult for President Obama to issue his long-promised multi-trillion-dollar tax on energy. Twenty-six Blue Dog Democrats recently voted against letting a carbon cap-and-trade "tax" be attached to the budget and thus pass with less than the 60 votes otherwise required. It may now be left to the Environmental Protection Agency to declare CO2 a human health hazard and try to regulate global warming under the Clean Air Act.

We'll need still-bigger "global warming tea parties" if the EPA issues regulations to control greenhouse emissions. The ballooning cost of such regulations, in both carbon taxes and exported jobs, would dwarf even our huge new federal debt load in the long term.

Sources:

March global temperatures: Goddard Institute for Space Studies web site, Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, giss/nasa.gov/tabledata.GLB.Ts+dSST.txt, 4/15/ 2009.

Net warming of 0.03 degree C over 30 years: Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, motls.blogspot.com/2009/04/giss-march-2009-coolest-march-in -this.html.

James Hansen quotes:

"NASA's Hansen Warns Barack Obama on Climate Change," The Guardian, Jan. 1, 2009.

"Coal-fired Power Plants are Death Factories. Close Them," Commentary by James Hansen, The Observer, London, Feb 15, 2009.

IPCC's inability to model cloud impacts: IPCC Report AR-3, 2001, section 7.2.2.4 Cloud-radiative feedback processes.

DENNIS T. AVERY is an environmental economist, and a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC. He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years, Readers may write him at PO Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421or email to cgfi@hughes.net

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